KF KFI
Vol. 22, No. 1, 2025 08 Sep 2026

Evaluation of the Arima-Kalman model in predicting rainfall in Medan City in 2023 using observation data from 2013 – 2022

ABSTRAK

This paper aims to evaluate the ARIMA-Kalman model in predicting rainfall in Medan City for the year 2023. The data used are historical observation data of rainfall from 2013 to 2022 that have been tested for stationary and homogeneity, which proved not to require additional correction. The analysis results show that the ARIMA-Kalman model can capture the general pattern of rainfall well, and shows superiority in producing predictions that are closer to the actual data, with a mean absolute error (MAE) value of 54.11, which is lower than the MAE of the ARIMA model which reaches 55.66. Although the ARIMA model has a smaller root mean square error (RMSE) (66.67 compared to 69.75 for ARIMA-Kalman), the ARIMA-Kalman model shows better consistency, especially in capturing significant fluctuations, such as the peak rainfall that occurred in July 2023. Therefore, ARIMA-Kalman is proven to be more accurate and reliable for predicting rainfall in Medan city, making it a better choice to support water resources planning and management.

KATA KUNCI

  • ARIMA; Kalman filter; model; prediction; rainfall

CARA MENGUTIP

Alva Josia Lumbantoruan, Yahya Darmawan, Munawar Munawar, Nardi Nardi, Fendy Arifianto, Ervan Ferdiansyah (2026) Evaluation of the Arima-Kalman model in predicting rainfall in Medan City in 2023 using observation data from 2013 – 2022. Komunikasi Fisika Indonesia, 22(1), 15-22 https://doi.org/10.31258/jkfi.22.1.15-22
Alva Josia Lumbantoruan, Yahya Darmawan, Munawar Munawar, Nardi Nardi, Fendy Arifianto, Ervan Ferdiansyah "Evaluation of the Arima-Kalman model in predicting rainfall in Medan City in 2023 using observation data from 2013 – 2022," Komunikasi Fisika Indonesia, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 15-22, 2026. doi: 10.31258/jkfi.22.1.15-22.
@article{lumbantoruan2026,
  author = {Alva Josia Lumbantoruan and Yahya Darmawan and Munawar Munawar and Nardi Nardi and Fendy Arifianto and Ervan Ferdiansyah},
  title = {Evaluation of the Arima-Kalman model in predicting rainfall in Medan City in 2023 using observation data from 2013 – 2022},
  journal = {Komunikasi Fisika Indonesia},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {22},
  number = {1},
  pages = {15-22},
  doi = {10.31258/jkfi.22.1.15-22},
  issn = {2579-521X},
}